Thailand’s army seized power in a military coup in May after months of street demonstrations against the elected government. All protests and political gatherings of more than five people are banned. The military junta says an election will be held in 2016, provided the nation’s decade-long political divide can be healed and a new constitution drafted. The last election, in February 2014, was blocked by anti-government groups and former Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra was removed from office by the Constitutional Court. She was popular among rural voters who supported her brother, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who was ousted in the last coup in 2006 but directed policy from abroad through his sister and her Pheu Thai party. Protests began in October 2013 against an amnesty bill that would have absolved Thaksin, a billionaire tycoon-turned-politician, after his conviction for corruption. They killed at least 25 people and evolved into a wider push to upend Thaksin’s electoral dominance, which is based, the protesters claim, on vote-buying and favors for the poor. Subsidies for rice farmers helped Thaksin and his allies win the last five elections with support from the vast northeast of the country. His opponents include civil servants, middle-aged royalists and the Democrat party, which led a court-installed government during the last deadly uprising in 2010.
Thailand has had a dozen coups since the country’s seven-century reign of kings ended with a bloodless 1932 putsch that turned the Kingdom of Siam into a constitutional monarchy. The economy was kick-started by U.S. economic aid that rewarded Thailand’s postwar campaign against communism, then propelled by Japanese and European manufacturers tapping Thai workers to make cars and disc drives for world markets. Successive governments met early ends at the hands of the military or the courts, which see themselves as protectors of the people, obligated to resolve power struggles. Thailand has had more than 20 prime ministers since 1946, when King Bhumibol Adulyadej assumed the throne. The economy has proved resilient, bouncing back from the Asian currency crisis in 1997, the devastating tsunami in 2004 and crippling floods in 2011. About two-thirds of Thailand’s 67 million people live in rural areas and more than 90 percent are Buddhist.
Bangkok’s urban middle class and royalist elite have resisted ceding control after Thaksin drew rural voters to the polls, swelling turnout to more than 75 percent in the last two elections. They reject the idea that they’re thwarting democracy, saying the damaged political system can only produce a credible government after it’s swept clean of Thaksin’s influence. His supporters, enraged by the way their repeated victories have been overturned, have joined the cycle of stalemates and sporadic violence. A gradual accommodation might involve more power-sharing with regional governments, though that could take a generation or more. The worst outcome could be a breakup of the country or even a civil war. While the 87-year-old king, whose portrait hangs in most homes and shops, has intervened in the past to calm his subjects, he’s seen as too ill to do so now.
The Reference Shelf
- Bloomberg Markets article from October 2013 on Thailand’s rural boom.
- Paul Handley’s biography of Bhumibol Adulyadej, “The King Never Smiles.”
- New Mandala website, a forum for academic debates about Southeast Asia hosted by the ANU College of Asia and the Pacific.
- World Bank’s Thailand Economic Monitor from December 2012.