In November 2015, an international board of financial regulators published rules that could require the world’s biggest banks to raise as much as $1.2 trillion in new funding. The new rules encourage the banks to issue debt that could be written off or converted to equity in the face of losses. Regulators said they hoped that would push lenders to be more vigilant about the risks banks take. Separately, financial firms were working to revise trillions of dollars in contracts in a way that could reduce the chance of a bailout. The changes would leave contracts in place for up to 48 hours after a bank fails, giving governments more time to restructure banks without having to take them over. In October, Hillary Clinton, a Democratic presidential candidate, said she supported breaking up or reorganizing U.S. financial firms that are “too large and too risky,” a position already endorsed by her main rivals in the party. Republicans in Congress have proposed replacing the provisions for winding down failing megabanks with a new bankruptcy court that would impose losses on shareholders and unsecured creditors.
The bank failures of the Great Depression led to the creation of deposit insurance and regulators like the U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation with powers to take over failing banks and liquidate them in an orderly way. That worked for decades. Then in 2007 and 2008, a series of deeply indebted investment banks not protected by the FDIC faced the equivalent of bank runs as creditors or shareholders started to doubt their solvency. When one, Lehman Brothers, was allowed to go under, regulators learned that the biggest firms were so interconnected that only massive bailouts kept dozens more around the world from failing. Responding to the crisis, regulators hastily extended the safety net till it eventually covered more than half of the financial sector. The 2010 Dodd-Frank Act expanded the powers of the FDIC to dismantle troubled financial companies that weren’t banks, like insurers and potentially some mutual funds, which would be asked to beef up their capital reserves and draw up “living wills,” plans for their own demise. One of the first non-banks to get that designation was American International Group, Inc., the giant insurer whose failure drew one of the largest bailouts in 2008. It’s an honor most candidates would rather do without, and in 2014 MetLife became the first insurer to sue to remove the label.
A 2014 study by the International Monetary Fund found that the belief among lenders that governments won’t let big banks go under produced annual savings of as much as $300 billion for large banks in the E.U., up to $70 billion in the U.S. and $110 billion in both the U.K. and Japan. Those figures, which were roughly consistent with studies by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Europe’s Green Party, suggested that this implicit subsidy could be at least as big as the big banks’ profits. But big banks say that more recent data shows that any borrowing advantage they gained after the 2008 bailouts has shrunk dramatically since tougher regulations were put in place; a Government Accountability Office report in July 2014 backed this up. In November, Standard and Poor’s said it might downgrade the debt rating of big U.S. banks, since the new rules requiring the banks to raise more money could make bank debt riskier — by making a bailout less likely.
The Reference Shelf
- The Financial Stability Board’s annual list of Global Systemically Important Banks
- The IMF study and the financial industry’s response.
- A study from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York that concluded that big banks can borrow more cheaply, and one from the Clearing House, a banking industry trade association, that argues that the subsidy has faded with new regulations. And one from the U.S. General Accounting Office that found support for both positions.
- A study commissioned by the Green Party in the European Parliament that put the value of the subsidy to EU banks at 234 billion euros ($321 billion) in 2012.
- A review by the FDIC of studies on the subject.
- An analysis by Bloomberg Government in June 2013 of the too-big-to-fail subsidy and proposed capital surcharges.
- A list by Bloomberg Rankings of the world’s biggest banks by assets.
- William Safire On Language column from 2008 on the origin of the term “too big to fail.”