Happy Birthday to John Henry Johnson, 58.

Better get to the good stuff quickly:

1. Andrew Gelman (with co-authors) has a new and important paper on general-election polling, showing that many (most?) swings during the course of the campaign may only be changes in how likely people are to talk to pollsters.

2. Some skepticism about that finding from Aaron Blake. I haven’t read the paper; I’ve only read Gelman’s blog post.

3. Andrew Rudalevige on Congress, Iraq and the War Powers Act.

4. “The fight in Halbig is thus a battle about how best to honor the political commitment to representative democracy.” That’s Nicholas Bagley. Remember: The courts are part of the democracy, and they’re supposed to be political in that sense.

5. Ross Douthat looks at internal conservative divisions over Ferguson.

6. While Matt Yglesias is exactly right about why Hillary Clinton doesn’t have to talk about Ferguson.

7. I love this idea: Huffington Post puts together a “Ferguson Fellowship” to keep covering what happens after everyone else leaves. Ryan Grim with the details. Will it work? Who knows -- but we need more schemes such as this one.

8. Sarah Kliff reports on the recent, and puzzling, drop in teen births.

9. Well-said and a good catch from Kevin Drum.

10. And Alyssa Rosenberg on conservatives and “The Giver.”

To contact the writer of this article: Jonathan Bernstein at jbernstein62@bloomberg.

To contact the editor responsible for this article: Zara Kessler at zkessler@bloomberg.net.