Happy Birthday to Mike Starr, 64.
Right to the good stuff:
1. Is Georgia trending toward the Democrats? Not yet, or at least not enough yet to help them much. Ben Highton has the numbers.
2. Sarah Kliff on the good news in the Medicare actuary report: Per person spending may actually be going down.
3. While Philip Klein finds the (potential?) bad news lurking.
4. Jordan Ragusa looks at the VA funding bill compromise.
5. Jared Bernstein looks at the inflation/employment tradeoffs.
6. Nate Cohn doesn't see any Republican wave developing in 2014, so far. Remember: Republicans could easily take over the Senate just by winning in good Republican states, even without assistance from national tides.
7. The Cook Report's Jennifer Duffy has a good rundown on where the Senate elections sit right now. She gives the Democrats a better chance (at 50/50) than the forecast modelers do, but note that the Cook Report traditionally is very conservative about predicting defeat for incumbents, which in this case favors Democrats.
8. Okay, I'll link to Aaron Blake's defense of stupid polls, given how often I attack them. I guess pure entertainment polls are harmless as long as the media treat them that way. But let's not pretend we know what they "really mean," much less that they convey important truths that proper polling questions miss.
9. And Dan Drezner discovers two flavors of foreign affairs analysts.
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg View's editorial board or Bloomberg LP, its owners and investors.
To contact the author on this story:
Jonathan Bernstein at email@example.com
To contact the editor on this story:
Frank Wilkinson at firstname.lastname@example.org