Happy Birthday to Vida Blue, 65.

Another week, and more good stuff:

1. The Upshot predictor model has increased Republican chances of a Senate majority to 60 percent. Amanda Cox and Josh Katz have the numbers.

2. While Nate Cohn explains the new New York Times/CBS/YouGov polling that helped create those projections. Promising.

3. Ariel Edwards-Levy takes a closer look at last week’s impeachment polling.

4. Nicholas Bagley on the Gruber flap. See also Sarah Kliff and Greg Sargent.

5. Seth Masket: a party can’t just will itself to a different coalition.

6. Jaime Fuller on Barney Frank, columnist.

7. And Christina Kahrl on the latest Hall of Fame voting reforms. She’s right that the ballot cap of ten doesn’t work well, and is even worse with a shorter term of eligibility. The ballot cap works especially horribly with the combination of a vote threshold to stay on the ballot, and the many writers who believe that first-year induction should be reserved for the best of the best. But she’s also right that future tweaks will replace this round, especially if the crop of new inductees (and the crowds in Cooperstown) are sparse for a year or three.

To contact the writer of this article: Jonathan Bernstein at Jbernstein62@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this article: Francis Wilkinson at fwilkinson1@bloomberg.net.