Happy Birthday to Willie Mays, 83.

So much good stuff:

1. John Sides introduces the new Washington Post election tracker, featuring the Monkey Cage projection system.

2. Nate Cohn, Josh Katz and Amanda Cox at the Upshot add that forecaster to their nifty forecast comparison chart, and discuss where we are now.

3. Very interesting post from Julia Azari about nationalization of the parties and the Wisconsin Republicans.

4. While Seth Masket writes about party cultures.

5. Big news in health-care reform yesterday. You may recall an Oregon study a while ago suggesting that more health insurance might be good financially for those who get it, but might not ensure better health care. A new study in Massachusetts reserves that: health insurance saves lives, it suggests. Here’s Harold Pollack discussing the study.

6. See also Adrianna McIntyre on the implications: “Sometimes evidence is easy to argue with. This isn’t one of those times.”

7. Ed Kilgore reminds us that independents aren’t a large, monolithic, ideologically “centrist” bunch of deficit cutters. In fact, they aren’t any of those things.

8. One of my longtime topics, the approval rate separation of Barack Obama, and George W. Bush, from Aaron Blake.

9. Andrew Sprung on rate shock.

10. And Jed Lewison has a great chart showing what happens to Obamacare on Fox News when the news turns good.
To contact the writer of this article: Jonathan Bernstein at Jbernstein62@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this article: Max Berley at mberley@bloomberg.net.