Happy Birthday to Steve Cauthen, 54.

Is that Derby weekend I see in the future? Sure, but for now, just the good stuff:

1. Julia Azari on dynasties and the nationalization of U.S. politics. Great post, and an important topic.

2. Absentee voter fraud is real, though probably not that big a deal in terms of election outcomes. Voter impersonation fraud at the polling place just doesn’t happen. Rick Hasen explains, one more time.

3. I really liked Ed Kilgore’s post tearing apart the “next in line” idea.

4. Ignore those polls! At The Upshot, Allison Kopicki points out that head-to-head general election presidential matchup polling is useless this far out, and nomination polling isn’t really any better.

5. And John Patty thinks about apologies.

To contact the author on this story:
Jonathan Bernstein at jbernstein62@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor on this story:
Max Berley at mberley@bloomberg.net