Happy Birthday to Omar Sharif, 82. Not just because he was in "Top Secret!"

Have to get to the good stuff:

Sarah Binder deciphers what’s happening at the Fed – and the complex relationship between transparency and communication.

While Mark Thoma notes what’s missing at the Fed – we have an empty seat problem. Again.

Some pushback from Seth Masket against my “will she or won’t she?” complaint earlier this week: Seth says that in the case of Hillary Clinton, the main question really is whether she wants the nomination.

Really interesting post from Jay Ulfelder about whether models have too much or too little influence. I don’t meet with the people he talks about, but I suspect that both Ulfelder (who finds that people don’t trust quantitative models) and Patrick Ball (who finds that people are far too willing to accept something that is presented as a simple graph) are both right. Indeed, I suspect that the same people Ulfelder describes as “deeply skeptical of efforts to forecast political behavior” may also be, in slightly different circumstances, overly accepting of numbers and graphs. If I’m correct about that, alas, I’m not sure exactly what to do with it.

The story isn’t so much that Republicans are backing off their schedule for unveiling their bill to "replace" Obamacare; it’s that some reporters still buy the fiction. Anyway, Jonathan Cohn has the latest.

And Jaime Fuller on Louisiana politicians and their scandals. Earl Long deserves his own listing though, though "Blaze" was awful.

To contact the writer of this article: Jonathan Bernstein at Jbernstein62@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this article: Max Berley at mberley@bloomberg.net