Happy Birthday to Caroline Blakiston, 81. Many Bothans died to bring us this information.
What if all the good stuff was health care for a day?:
1. Avik Roy, the go-to conservative health-policy wonk, pronounces the ACA “costlier, and less successful” than proponents hoped -- but not an imploding disaster that will collapse on its own. In my view, he’s being a bit too confident about most of his conclusions … It’s really hard to tell yet, I think, whether Obamacare will somewhat exceed or somewhat fall short of the realistic claims made for it by supporters (putting aside some of the campaign-time cheerleading). But, yeah, those who think it’s just going to self-destruct are fooling themselves.
2. See also Paul Krugman, who points out that if a death spiral was building up, the insurance companies would be freaking out about it.
3. While Andrew Sprung looks at the issue of the unsubsidized. I’d like to see some projections on this, however. Mind a little wild speculation? My guess is that people with OK health insurance on the individual market outside of the exchanges in 2013 and who don’t qualify for subsidies would be the slowest to try looking at the rates. After all, thinks-not-broken and all. On top of that, they’re high income, and probably significantly more attentive to the news (and probably more Republican) than most people; they would be the ones most likely to know about the October Healthcare.gov fiasco, and if they’re mostly getting that information from conservative sources, they might be highly skeptical or even actively hostile to Obamacare (remember Bette in Spokane?). As time goes on, however, the exchanges will be less associated with “Obamacare,” and if there are good deals to be had, those unsubsidized folks may eventually find out about them. Totally speculative; maybe there’s just no good deals to be had.
4. By the way, liberals: Yesterday’s good-news-for-ACA Gallup numbers (percent uninsured dropped a bit) was a good opportunity to check up on your liberal pundits. If they didn’t heavily caveat the polling result, you’re reading the wrong pundits. Greg Sargent (you all know I used to write for Greg’s Plum Line, right?) gets it right, and makes some good points besides.
5. Yes, conservatives, check up on your favorite conservatives pundits. Did they present the good news in the HHS numbers fairly? If not, you’re risking being in a bubble. Philip Klein shows how to do it.
6. And I might as well finish with Sarah Kliff’s look at the new numbers. She’s always excellent, too.
To contact the writer of this article: Jbernstein62@bloomberg.net.
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